Commodity Strategy - China Crisis: Potential Scenarios For Commodity Prices - FEB 2017

BMI View: There is significant risk of a China economic growth crisis in 201 7 . While such a scenario c ould be severely negative for commodity prices, we believe this would not necessarily be the case. Ultimately, the policy response of the central government to a ny growth collapse would be the key determinant of commodit y performance. Below, we briefly outline the three potential policy responses and the likely implications for commodity prices :

1) Reform - Negative for commodity prices

2) Muddle Through - Negative for commodity prices

China Crisis: Potential Outcomes For Commodities
Note: For more detailed description, see below table. Source: BMI

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