Industry Trend Analysis - Australia Dietary Shifts: Greater Health-Consciousness, Premium Meats In Demand - APR 2018

BMI View: Dietary patterns in Australia are set to remain largely static, but we do note the trends of premiumisation and healthification are becoming more prominent. Meat and poultry tops Australia's food spending breakdown, with poultry the consumer's favourite meat and the meat that we project will also witness the strongest increase in consumption.

Australia is forecast to witness modest growth in household spending, rising by 4.5% annually in local currency terms between 2018-2022. This will push consumer spending to AUD1.29trn (USD964.1bn) in 2022, up from AUD1.07trn (USD843.8bn) in 2018. Within our household spending breakdown (made up of Clothing and Footwear, Household Goods, Personal Care and Effects, Food and Non-Alcoholic Drinks and Alcoholic Drinks), we estimate the strongest growth will come from the food and non-alcoholic drinks segment, which will grow by a projected 4.3% annually between 2018 and 2022. Continued spend growth within Australia's already saturated and mature food sector signals an ongoing premiumisation trend, as we attribute this growth to increased spending on high-quality and premium food offerings.

Further analysis into the Australian consumer's dietary patterns indicates minimal changes over our forecast period, with the categories of meat and poultry, dairy and fresh vegetables maintaining their top three ranking over our forecast period. Meat and poultry ranks as the highest percentage of total sales at roughly 20%. Dairy will also maintain its position in second place through to 2022, although rise in percentage terms from 14.5% to 15.0% between 2012 and 2022. Meanwhile, we also estimate a growing healthification trend coming through with fresh fruit and vegetables spending rising as a share of total spend. We estimate fresh vegetables spending by the Australian consumer will maintain its ranking in third place between 2012 and 2022, but increase in percentage terms from 12.0% of food spending in 2012 to 12.5% in 2022. Similarly, fresh fruits spending is, maintaining its place in fifth position, but will see a slight increase as a percent of total food spending from 10.9% in 2012 to 11.1% by 2022.

Meat and Poultry The Largest Portion of Food Sales
Food Segment Sales, % of Total
f= BMI forecast. Source: BMI

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