Industry Trend Analysis - Bright Outlook For Australian Beef Despite Surging Competition - MAY 2017

BMI View : The outlook for Australia ' s beef sector and exports remains bright amidst a large exportable surplus, reputable products and market competitiveness. However, rising international competition in almost every market and meat segment suggest s the sector will need to focus on market access and premiumisation in the coming years to keep export volumes growing moderately .

The beef sector is one of the success stories of Australia's agribusiness industry, as the country is one of the largest providers in the world, with beef exports having amounted to around USD6bn on average every year over the 2012-2016 period, or 3% of the country's total exports. We believe the outlook for Australia's beef sector and exports remains bright.

Australia's beef production and exports will rise over our forecast period out to 2021, helped by attractive export opportunities and profitability following a temporary period of decline, as the sector is in the middle of a cycle of herd rebuilding over 2015-2017. We forecast output to reach 2.4mn tonnes by 2020/21, compared with the 10-year average of 2.2mn tonnes and close to the peak reached in 2013/14. Australia's beef surplus will remain elevated, standing at 1.7mn tonnes in 2021, as domestic consumption will record lacklustre growth.

Limited Production Growth In Australia
Select Countries - Beef & Veal Meat Production Balance ('000 tonnes)
f = BMI forecast. Note: SEA = South East Asia. Source: Local statistics, USDA, BMI

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