Industry Trend Analysis - France Agriculture: Upside Potential Should Macron Enact Reforms - JULY 2017


BMI View: We hold a positive view on French President Emmanuel Macron's agricultural policy programme, focused on more targeted subsidies, further integration with the EU, support to innovative and environmentally friendly production methods, and the promotion of stronger competition among domestic food processors. We see upside risks to our already positive forecasts for France's agribusiness outlook should Macron fully enact his propositions with limited resistance from farmers, the National Assembly and the EU.

In this article we set out the main implications of the 2017 French presidential and parliamentary election for the agribusiness sector. According to our Country Risk team, President Emmanuel Macron's La Republique En Marche party will perform well in the June legislative elections, likely gaining sufficient seats to push through key elements of the new leader's ambitious reform agenda (' Legislative Elections: Macron Party Likely Close To Majority ' , May 12). Advocating a centrist political platform, Macron intends to focus on more targeted subsidies for the country's agriculture, further integration with the EU, the provision of support for innovative and environmentally friendly production methods, and the promotion of stronger competition among domestic food processors. We see upside risks to our already positive forecasts for France's agribusiness outlook should Macron win a majority in the legislative elections and fully enact his propositions with limited resistance from farmers, the National Assembly and the EU.

Upside Risks To Forecasts Should Macron Enact His Programme For Agriculture

Positive Outlook For France's Agribusiness
France - Agribusiness Market Value (USDmn & % chg yoy) & Select Commodities Production Growth (% chg yoy)
f = BMI forecasts. Source: FranceAgriMer, Eurostat, BMI

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