Industry Trend Analysis - Kazakhstan To Confirm Status As Central Asian Bread-Basket - SEPT 2017

BMI View: Kazakhstan ' s share of world wheat exports will continue to grow over our forecast period, provided that the country is able to address quality concerns. Demand for Kazakh wheat will increase, both domestically and among the country ' s main trading partners in Central Asia. Policy reform will facilitate the agricultural moderni s ation process, but Chinese infrastructure investment will be the main driver of the sector ' s success going forward.

Kazakhstan is the ninth largest country in the world by surface area, and with a population of 18.0mn, it is also one of the least densely populated countries in the world. The availability of arable land per inhabitant (1.5 hectares) is the second highest in the world after Australia, according to the OECD. Kazakhstan's resource endowments have traditionally driven its success in agricultural export markets: it was the world's eighth largest exporter of wheat in the 2016/2017 season and a major source of agri-food products for a number of Central and West Asian countries, including Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. We believe these competitive advantages will continue to drive export growth in the future.

We have updated our wheat production forecasts for Kazakhstan, which we were initially expecting to trend sideways out to 2021. We now expect production to increase steadily from 2018/2019 and for the country's position in export markets to continue to improve over a four-year horizon. Our forecasts are based on a number of factors:

Kazakhstan's Share Of Global Wheat Exports To Resume Growth
Kazakhstan - Wheat Production ('000 Tonnes) And Exports (% Of Global)
Sources: USDA, BMI

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