Industry Trend Analysis - La Ni?a Threats Return - NOV 2017


BMI View: The 2015-2016 El Nino episode had a severe negative impact on agricultural production in Asia, Africa and Central America. After briefly appearing in early 2016, weather models a re increasing ly expecting a second La Nina episode , which has a 50-75% chance of appearing in H217 and lingering into H118. La Nina would affect the weather in two of the largest global food providers, the US and Brazil, posing acute downside risks to corn, soybean, wheat, sugar, cotton and coffee production.

El Nino 2015-2016: Severe Impact In Many Countries

The 2015-2016 El Nino episode, which lasted from May 2015 to May 2016 according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, had a severe impact on weather conditions and agricultural production in several regions. It was a very strong episode, comparable to the ones that occurred in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, with means that sea surface temperature in parts of the Pacific was well over 2 degrees Celsius above average. As a result, large parts of South and South East Asia, Southern Africa and Central America recorded very dry conditions in 2015 and 2016. Large regional and global suppliers of agricultural commodities, including South Africa, Thailand, India and Vietnam, were among the most affected. Other countries that suffered large crop failure included Namibia, Mozambique, Ethiopia and Costa Rica.

Possible Return In Late 2017
El Nino & La Nina Events, 1991-2016
Source: Australia Bureau of Meteorology

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