Middle East & Africa

Regional trend analysis, forecasts and market intelligence for the Agrbusiness industry

Latest Middle East & Africa Analysis

Commodity Price Forecast - Soybean: Minor Deficits To Spur Small Prices Increases Out To 2022 - FEB 2018

We have maintained our soybean forecasts out to 2022 and expect prices to average moderately higher than spot levels in the coming years. The global soybean market will register small deficits as global demand growth, led by China, remains steady. By contrast, global supply growth will slow due to a reduced rate in plantings and yields.

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Industry Trend Analysis - Sugar: Recent Rally To Prove Temporary - JAN 2018

Sugar prices have approached USc16/lb in recent weeks, in response to news that Brazilian mills will increase the share of cane diverted to ethanol in the upcoming 2018/2019 harvest. We maintain our forecast for sugar prices to fall to an average of USc13.50/lb in 2018, as the 2018/2019 surplus begins to weigh on sentiment and bullishness in the Brazilian ethanol market fades over H118.

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Market Strategy - Monthly Commodities Strategy: La Ni?a Back On The Radar - NOV 2017

We have a broadly neutral expectation for commodity prices over a three-month horizon after a resilient Q317. For instance, gains for oil over September-October have taken prices to the top of the USD50-60/bbl trading range that we expect to hold over the coming months. Looking at 2018 as a whole, the outlook for prices is mixed and while we are bullish grains, we expect a pause in the medium-t...

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Market Strategy - Monthly Commodities Strategy: Metals Outlook Firming, Grains Wilting - OCT 2017

We expect only modest gains in commodity prices over the remainder of the year and performance across sub-categories will be mixed. For instance, we have turned more positive towards industrial metals and coal over the past month and have revised up our price forecasts for aluminium, iron ore and thermal coal. In contrast, we now have a less bullish view on grain prices and have significantly...

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Industry Trend Analysis - SSA: Improving But Constrained Prospects For GM Seed Usage - SEPT 2017

Regulatory changes and a favourable pipeline of GM crops hold upside risks for our forecasts on the uptake of GM in Sub-Saharan Africa. That said, broader structural problems in regional agribusiness value chains will constrain the growth of the GM market going forward. In particular, the dominance of low-income smallholders, a lack of regulatory harmonization between countries, and persistent...

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