Middle East & Africa

Regional trend analysis, forecasts and market intelligence for the Agrbusiness industry

Latest Middle East & Africa Analysis

Market Strategy - Monthly Commodities Strategy: La Ni?a Back On The Radar - NOV 2017

We have a broadly neutral expectation for commodity prices over a three-month horizon after a resilient Q317. For instance, gains for oil over September-October have taken prices to the top of the USD50-60/bbl trading range that we expect to hold over the coming months. Looking at 2018 as a whole, the outlook for prices is mixed and while we are bullish grains, we expect a pause in the medium-t...

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Market Strategy - Monthly Commodities Strategy: Metals Outlook Firming, Grains Wilting - OCT 2017

We expect only modest gains in commodity prices over the remainder of the year and performance across sub-categories will be mixed. For instance, we have turned more positive towards industrial metals and coal over the past month and have revised up our price forecasts for aluminium, iron ore and thermal coal. In contrast, we now have a less bullish view on grain prices and have significantly...

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Industry Trend Analysis - SSA: Improving But Constrained Prospects For GM Seed Usage - SEPT 2017

Regulatory changes and a favourable pipeline of GM crops hold upside risks for our forecasts on the uptake of GM in Sub-Saharan Africa. That said, broader structural problems in regional agribusiness value chains will constrain the growth of the GM market going forward. In particular, the dominance of low-income smallholders, a lack of regulatory harmonization between countries, and persistent...

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Commodity Strategy - BMI Vs Consensus: Turning Below Consensus On Oil Prices - AUG 2017

Although the outlook for commodity prices compared with spot prices over the rest of 2017 is neutral, most of our price forecasts for 2017 remain for rises in prices on an annual average basis. We are positive on grains and oil from spot levels in H217; are neutral to slightly bearish on industrial metals; and negative on softs agricultural commodities and coal.

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